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Weather Forecast Dissemination 2024

IND -24 -1864

Last modified on January 21st, 2026 at 5:17 pm

    Basic Information

  • Abstract
    In 2023, the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare (MoA&FW) partnered with the Development Innovation Lab India (DIL–India) at the University of Chicago Trust to pilot and scale innovations addressing climate change, food security, and farmers’ welfare. Under this initiative, PxD and DIL–India collaborated to enable the digital delivery of weather forecasts to farmers.

    Climate change is disrupting and reducing the predictability of weather patterns, which makes it increasingly difficult for farmers to plan their growing seasons, and heightens farmers’ risk of severe crop losses. Building on evidence of the benefits of weather forecasts, we launched a large pilot to send to over 9 million farmers. Farmers in five states in India received two types of SMS weather forecasts: monsoon onset (MO), which predicted the start dates of the monsoon season (produced by a researcher at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PIK), and total rainfall (TR), which projected the cumulative rainfall over the June–September monsoon season (produced by the India Meteorological Department, IMD). The objective of disseminating this information was to provide farmers with seasonal forecasts that offer sufficient lead time to make critical agricultural decisions.

    The study focused on whether farmers recall receiving SMS weather forecasts, trust the forecasts, update their beliefs about the upcoming monsoon, and use the information to guide their agricultural decision-making. Message dissemination used a saturation design, with varying coverage levels across sub-districts for MO forecasts, and randomly assigned comparison groups within districts for TR forecasts.
  • Status
    Ongoing
  • Start date
    Q2 May 2024
  • End date
    Q2 Jun 2024
  • Experiment Location
    India
  • Partner Organization
    Development Innovation Lab - University of Chicago, India Ministry of Agriculture
  • Agricultural season
    Kharif

    • Research Design

  • Experiment type
    Impact Evaluation
  • Sample frame / target population
    PM Kisan beneficiaries across relevant districts in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhatishgarh and Telangana.
  • Sample size
    9,450,000
  • Outcome type
    Agricultural production / yield, Agricultural profits / revenues, Beliefs or perceptions, Crop choice or land use, Information sharing, Service engagement, User experience, Financial behavior
  • Mode of data collection
    Partner administrative data, Phone survey, In-person survey
  • Research question(s)
    1. Do farmers recall receiving SMS weather forecasts?
    2. Are farmers able to comprehend the SMS weather forecasts they receive?
    3. Do farmers trust the SMS weather forecasts they receive?
    4. How does receiving SMS weather forecasts affect farmers’ beliefs about the upcoming monsoon?
    5. Do farmers learn about SMS weather forecasts from their peers?
    6. Do farmers want to receive such SMS weather forecasts in the future?
    7. Do SMS weather forecasts affect farmers’ agricultural decision-making?
    8. Do SMS weather forecasts affect farmers’ agricultural production, economic activities, and household finances?


  • Research theme
    Communication technology, Message framing, Social learning, Weather information
  • Research Design

    Sample frame and selection criteria:
    The study sampled PM Kisan beneficiaries for forecast dissemination. For MO forecasts, 21 districts in Telangana were selected where high-accuracy forecasts were available. For TR forecasts, 39 districts across Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh were selected, based on a high correlation with IMD’s all-India total rainfall forecasts.

    Randomization protocol with clustering or stratification:
    Message dissemination for MO employed a randomized saturation design. Sub-districts were randomly assigned to receive forecasts at different coverage levels (30% vs. 90% of farmers). For TR, 1,000–2,000 farmers per district were randomly assigned as comparison farmers and did not receive messages.

    Intervention:
    TR forecasts were sent to 8.6 million farmers, while MO forecasts were sent to 0.85 million farmers in Telangana, with 0.4 million of these farmers also receiving TR forecasts. The first round of forecast SMS messages (both MO and TR) was sent on May 11, 2024, followed by a second round of updated messages sent from June 5 to June 8, 2024.

    Data collection and measurement methods:

    • May 2024, Round 1: A telephonic Kisan Call Center (KCC) survey of 19,000 base sample farmers across five states; captured farmers’ beliefs about MO and TR.
    • May–June 2024, Round 2: A telephonic KCC survey of 1,000 base sample farmers after message dissemination; focused on forecast use, satisfaction, and trust.
    • August–October 2024, Round 3: A telephonic KCC survey of 23,000 base sample farmers; gathered insights into farmers’ beliefs about the 2024 monsoon and their related agricultural decisions for the Kharif season.
    • Around harvest time, Round 4: An in-person survey of approximately 2,500 of the farmers in Telangana who received MO forecasts; gathered detailed information on agricultural activity, income, consumption, and household finances.

    • Results

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